Nigeria

The upstream oil regulator (NUPRC) opened the 2026 Nigerian Licensing Round, offering 40 onshore, shallow-water and deepwater blocks to Nigerian and international investors. It promised to publish the bidding timetable up front and to tighten disclosure of beneficial ownership and evaluation results. This is the main new upstream entry point in the window, but the bid dates are not yet published.

The Sun (Nigeria) · 2026-10-07

The US State Department's 2026 Investment Climate Statement, published in September, says Nigeria is in a fragile stabilisation after subsidy removal and the freeing of the exchange rate. It flags that this year's switch from tax holidays to a credit-based incentive system has caused administrative adjustment problems for foreign firms. It also notes that 'backward integration' rules sometimes make import permits and quotas conditional on investing in local production.

U.S. Department of State · 2026-09-30

Foreign capital inflows reached US$20.04bn by June 2026, up 86% on a year earlier. Together with remittances, they lifted reserves to US$54.69bn by mid-September, enough to cover more than 13 months of imports. Easier FX access helps entrants repatriate profits, but these flows can reverse quickly.

United Capital Plc (Monetary Policy Watch) · 2026-09-01

On 29 July the Nigeria Customs Service began applying the 2026 Fiscal Policy Measures and Tariff Amendments approved by President Tinubu, changing import duties, excise and customs rules. Importers should recheck the duty and admissibility of their goods under the new schedule before they price or ship.

Channels Television · 2026-07-29

Under the 2026 Variation Order, an Import Adjustment Tax applies to 192 products from outside ECOWAS, fully built cars fall from 70% to 40% duty, smartphones pay 15% and computers 10%. The import ban on non-ECOWAS goods has been revised to cover 17 broad product headings, mostly food. From January 2027 most Import Adjustment Tax rates will be cut each year until they reach zero in 2036, except for goods on Nigeria's AfCFTA sensitive list.

HKTDC Research · 2026-08-27

At its 21-22 September meeting the Central Bank of Nigeria cut the Monetary Policy Rate by 350bp to 23%, after holding it at 26.5% in July. It kept the 45% cash reserve requirement for banks, and reserves stood at about US$54.9bn in September. The cut lowers the benchmark cost of naira credit, but the unchanged reserve requirement means bank liquidity stays tight, so lending rates may fall more slowly than the policy rate.

Central Bank of Nigeria (MPC decisions); Trading Economics · 2026-09-22

Headline inflation edged down to 15.39% in August from 15.43% in July, with prices up 0.71% on the month, while food inflation was still 19.57% year on year. In a separate CBN survey, the share of households that see inflation as high rose to 77.2% in September, so consumer purchasing power remains under pressure even though the official rate is easing.

National Bureau of Statistics · 2026-09-15

Real GDP grew 4.43% year on year in Q2 2026, up from 3.89% in Q1, according to figures released on 31 August. This is the fastest growth in roughly five years and points to firmer demand, although the next reading is due in late November.

Trading Economics (NBS data) · 2026-08-31

INEC published its final list of 18 presidential candidates in September. The presidential and National Assembly elections are set for 16 January 2027 and governorship polls for 6 February, with President Tinubu running again for the APC against a fragmented opposition. Policy announcements, government contracting and regulatory approvals may slow or become more politicised over the campaign.

The Rio Times · 2026-10-07

ACLED data cited by Vanguard attributes more than 80% of mass abductions since early 2025 to armed bandits. In a Yiaga Africa survey, 61% of respondents said fear of violence could stop them voting, rising to 78% in the North-East. Firms operating in the North-West, North-East and North-Central should plan for kidnap risk and possible election-period disruption.

Vanguard · 2026-10-10