Brazil

The central bank published its Census of Foreign Capital for 2025 on 28 September. It shows US owners holding about US$287 billion of equity in Brazil, with large stakes routed through holding companies in places such as Uruguay. China remains the largest buyer of Brazilian goods, taking about 29% of exports, which underlines how Brazil is pulled between its two biggest economic partners.

The Rio Times (reporting Banco Central do Brasil census) · 2026-09-28

Foreign investors put a net R$9.11 billion into B3-listed equities in September, the strongest month since March, according to Elos Ayta. Third-quarter outflows were much smaller than in the second quarter, which points to recovering foreign appetite for Brazilian assets even before the election rally.

Brazil Stock Guide (citing Elos Ayta) · 2026-10-03

The US State Department published its 2026 Investment Climate Statement for Brazil in September. It notes that there are few restrictions on converting or transferring funds linked to foreign investment. It is a useful baseline on market access, tax and dispute-resolution conditions for entrants.

U.S. Department of State · 2026-09-29

The extra 25% US tariff on most Brazilian goods, imposed under Section 301 and in effect since 22 July 2026, still applied during the window. Exempt products include civil aircraft and parts, some pharmaceuticals, pig iron and unflavoured instant coffee. Firms planning to use Brazil as a base for exporting to the US need to price in this tariff and check whether their products are exempt.

The Rio Times; Federal Register (USTR notice of action) · 2026-10-07

The US case against Brazil covers digital trade and electronic payment services, preferential tariffs, anti-corruption enforcement, intellectual property, ethanol market access and illegal deforestation. Brazilian court orders directing US tech platforms to remove content are among the practices cited. Foreign firms in digital, payments and content businesses face the most regulatory friction between the two countries, and the runoff result is likely to shape whether talks resume.

Federal Register / CNBC · 2026-09-09

The Copom cut the Selic by a quarter point to 13.75% at its 15–16 September meeting, its fifth straight cut. In the minutes published on 22 September, the central bank said inflation is still driven by demand and repeated that weaker fiscal discipline could raise the neutral rate. Borrowing costs are still very high, so entrants that rely on local debt should not plan around fast cuts.

Banco Central do Brasil (Copom minutes) · 2026-09-22

The IPCA rose 0.82% in September, taking 12-month inflation to 4.58%. That is above the 4.5% upper limit of the 3% target range for the first time since June, with oil prices adding pressure. This makes further easing at the November Copom meeting less certain and raises the chance of higher input costs and indexed wage and rent increases.

The Rio Times (reporting IBGE data) · 2026-10-09

Brazilian assets had their biggest one-day rally in more than six years on 5 October: the Ibovespa jumped 7.7% to a record and the real gained about 4%. By 9 October the Ibovespa had reached another record at 209,067 and the real was trading near 4.99 per US dollar. The stronger real lowers the dollar cost of entering Brazil, but the move rests on an election outcome that has not happened yet and could reverse.

The Rio Times · 2026-10-09

No candidate won a majority in the 4 October first round. With more than 99% of votes counted, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro had about 47% and President Lula about 45%, and the two meet in a runoff on 25 October. A Bolsonaro win would probably bring a sharp shift to the right in economic and foreign policy, including relations with the US and China, so entrants should be ready for either outcome.

NPR / Bloomberg · 2026-10-04

The 2022 result, which Lula won narrowly, was rejected by Jair Bolsonaro, and his supporters stormed the presidential palace, Congress and the Supreme Court. Given that history, the risk of disputes or unrest after the runoff is something operators should plan for, even though the electoral court reported that the first round ran normally.

The Washington Post / CBS News · 2026-10-04